The NZD/USD pair is drawing in buyers after a decline, reversing a significant portion of Friday's decline from the 0.6200 level. Spot prices have risen to the 0.6180-0.6185 area, signaling the potential for further extension of last week's rebound from the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Rising expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are pulling the U.S. Dollar Index closer to its early-year low, providing support to the NZD/USD pair. Additionally, a generally positive tone in equity markets is undermining the dollar. This helps offset a series of bleak Chinese macroeconomic data released over the weekend and benefits the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar.
Technical Analysis. From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart — while moving off lower levels — have yet to fully confirm a bullish trend. This suggests it would be prudent to wait for additional buying beyond the 0.6200 level before placing new bullish positions ahead of the FOMC decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. Following that, the NZD/USD pair could rise to the 0.6255 level on its way to the 0.6300 level and the multi-month high reached in August.
On the other hand, the 0.6155 level now acts as immediate support against further declines before reaching the monthly low. Below that is the round number of 0.6100 or the 200-day SMA, which, if decisively broken, could be seen as a new trigger for bears. The downward trajectory may then continue to the psychological level of 0.6000, with some obstacles along the way.
