Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen
The price tested 140.61 as the MACD indicator started to move downward from the zero line, confirming an optimal entry point to sell the dollar, continuing the prevailing downward trend in the market. The pair moved only 20 points before returning to the 140.61 level. Changes in retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing output, and the NAHB housing market index are factors that could support the dollar's rise today. However, for this to happen, U.S. data must significantly exceed economists' forecasts, which would prompt USD/JPY buying. However, strong growth against the trend seems unlikely. Otherwise, the pair's decline will continue. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act according to scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point at 140.91 is reached (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 141.44 (thicker green line on the chart). At 141.44, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement lower. A rise in the pair today can be expected if U.S. data is strong. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 140.57 twice when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 140.91 and 141.44 is expected.
Sell signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 140.57 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 140.04, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions, expecting a 20-25 point upward movement. Pressure will return to the pair if U.S. statistics disappoint. Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 140.91 twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 140.57 and 140.04 is expected.
What's on the chart:
- Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as a guide.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make careful decisions when entering the market. It is best to avoid entering the market before major fundamental reports to prevent exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I have outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
