Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The price test at 1.1197 occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's potential for further growth. For this reason, I didn't make a purchase. Shortly after, another test of the 1.1197 level while the MACD was in the overbought zone resulted in an entry point to sell, but before an active decline, the pair rose by another 15 pips, which triggered my stop order and led to a loss. The test of the 1.1178 level occurred when the MACD had moved significantly below the zero mark, so I decided not to sell the euro, and I missed out.
Today, the pair might continue its decline, and weak data on M3 money supply and private sector lending, as well as dovish statements from European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson, could be enough to support this. However, the main movement is expected in the second half of the day during speeches by representatives of central banks. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios Nos. 1 and 2 for selling.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, consider buying the euro when the price reaches the 1.1164 level (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the 1.1183 level. At the 1.1183 mark, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position for the euro, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. Anticipate the euro's rise today in the first half of the day only after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1146 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1164 and 1.1183.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1146 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1124 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in case of a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1164 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1146 and 1.1124 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner forex traders must make market entry decisions cautiously. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, similar to the example I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
