Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:
There aren't too many macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but there's a fair amount to consider. The key focus will be on the third estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter, as well as the data on durable goods orders. It's worth noting that the market will likely only react to these releases if there are deviations from the forecasts. Otherwise, these reports might be ignored. The US dollar still finds it highly challenging to rely on support from macroeconomic data, as previous GDP reports have consistently shown high values, yet this has had no impact on the dollar. The same applies to durable goods orders.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
Among the fundamental events on Thursday, the speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stand out. There's no need to emphasize how important these events are. Too little time has passed since the last meetings of these central banks to change plans regarding monetary policy or their rhetoric. Nonetheless, the market is currently susceptible to statements from Powell, eagerly seeking confirmation of its dovish expectations. Therefore, the US dollar could come under pressure again today.
General Conclusions:
During the penultimate trading day of the week, the euro and the pound may resume their upward movements after a slight correction. Both currency pairs' upward trends remain intact; yesterday, both experienced a correction. Therefore, it's entirely possible to expect renewed growth today. It's difficult to anticipate support for the dollar from US data, and market participants will likely be looking for dovish rather than hawkish hints in Powell's speech.
Basic Rules of the Trading System:
1) Signal Strength: The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2) False Signals: If two or more trades are opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3) Flat Market: In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4) Trading Timeframe: Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which they should be closed manually.
5) MACD Indicator Signals: In the hourly time frame, it is preferable to trade based on MACD signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6) Close Levels: If two levels are located too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be considered as a single support or resistance area.
7) Stop Loss: Once the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at the breakeven point.
What's on the Charts:
Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.
Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.
