Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
There were no tests of the levels I indicated earlier in the day. Low market volatility and relatively solid data on service sector activity in Eurozone countries maintained equilibrium, which can only be disrupted by strong U.S. statistics. Ahead, we have similar figures for the U.S. PMI, including the Services PMI, Composite PMI, and the ISM Services Index. Strong data could put renewed pressure on the pair, leading to another sell-off. Additionally, the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report will be released, but it is unlikely to impact the market as much as the speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari. Any cautious stance from policymakers could trigger a sell-off in EUR/USD. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to proceed based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price level of 1.1052 (the green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to the 1.1093 level. At 1.1093, I will exit the market and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro today can only be expected if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance and weak U.S. data is reported. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1028 price level, and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1052 and 1.1093.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1028 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0993, at which point I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if the U.S. statistics are strong. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1052 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1028 and 1.0993.
Chart Breakdown:
- Thin green line – the price level at which you can buy the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – the price level at which you can sell the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – the expected price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: It is important to use the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions about market entry. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're trading large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is, by nature, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
