Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The levels I indicated were not tested in the second half of the day yesterday, so I didn't have any entry points into the market. Volatility in the pound was relatively low after the spike observed in the first half of the day when data on the increase in benefit claims and a drop in the UK unemployment rate were released. Today, a vital inflation figure has already been published, leading to another pound sell-off. The sharp drop in inflation and yesterday's news of a declining unemployment rate allows the Bank of England to continue aggressively cutting interest rates, negatively affecting the outlook for the British pound. Therefore, there's no point in considering GBP/USD purchases for now. As for the intraday strategy, I'll focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point at around 1.3035 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 1.3092 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3092, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement back from the level. Strong growth in the pound today seems unlikely.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2994 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3035 and 1.3092 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the 1.2994 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2941, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement back from the level. Selling the pound is possible in continuation of the bearish market.
Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3035 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 1.2994 and 1.2941 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
