Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 149.27 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I didn't make a purchase. The second test of this price happened when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area and started declining, which, in the context of an intraday downtrend, became a perfect signal to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair moved toward the target level of 149.01, which was the end of the movement. Today, weak data on machine and equipment orders in Japan were released, along with a speech by Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi, who stressed the need for a gradual approach to raising the key interest rate. This reinforced the market's belief that the authorities will likely leave rates unchanged when they meet to determine policy this month. This has weakened the yen's position against the dollar, so the pair's upward potential remains intact. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 149.49 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 149.90 (thicker green line on the chart). At 149.90, I plan to exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement back from the level. Further growth in the pair can be expected, especially after the recent statements by Bank of Japan representatives.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price of 149.18 is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 149.49 and 149.90 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the 149.18 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.73, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement back from the level. Selling pressure will return if there is weak activity around the daily high.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.49 price, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 149.18 and 148.73 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
