Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0785 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had fallen significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. As a result, I decided not to sell the euro. The second test of 1.0785 occurred while the MACD was in the oversold zone, which, combined with positive data on Eurozone PMI activity indices for October this year, provided a reason to buy the euro according to Scenario #2. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points. U.S. statistics will also be in focus today. Data on initial jobless claims and new home sales are expected, but the PMI indices for the manufacturing and services sectors in the U.S. are far more interesting. A decrease in these figures would justify continued selling of the dollar and buying of the euro. If not, the pair may decline further. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price area around 1.0809 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.0834 level. At 1.0834, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. The euro's growth in the second half of the day will only be possible following weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0786 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.0809 and 1.0834 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0786 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0756. At this level, I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 points from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong PMI data is released. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0809 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the resistance levels of 1.0786 and 1.0756 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Approximate price where you can place a Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Approximate price where you can place a Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
