The euro has finally initiated a substantial (from a technical standpoint) correction. Yesterday's rise amounted to 44 pips. The correction's potential extends to the MACD line on the weekly chart, targeting the range of 1.1085-1.1100, which coincides with the peak of April 2023.
However, this upward movement might not be merely a correction; it could be part of a trend. If so, the growth could surpass 1.1276, thus overtaking the high from July 2023. Why is such growth possible? For two reasons: Harris defeats Trump, or Trump defeats Harris. In the latter case, the market could see a powerful shakeout of those who, driven by political fears, sold the euro from September 25th until now. It's worth noting that 80% of Forex trading volume comes from the six largest U.S. banks, which support the Democratic Party and can reverse any market trend.
After such a medium-term operation, we anticipate a long-term trend toward dollar strengthening, also for two reasons: the world will recognize the dollar's importance as a global currency, and a period of economic crisis will prompt investors to move away from risk.
For now, the euro is moving toward the target level of 1.0882. The Marlin oscillator on the daily time frame is rising.
On the H4 chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line for the first time in the last month. The price now needs to overcome the resistance of the balance line to shift traders' preferences toward buying. The Marlin oscillator is actively supporting this intention—it has already settled in positive territory and continues to move upward.
