In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0690 level as a key decision point. We will review the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A drop and a false breakout at this level initially provided an opportunity to enter long positions. However, the pair failed to see an upward correction. Later, a breakout and retest of 1.0690 provided a selling opportunity, resulting in a 35-point decline. The technical outlook for the second half of the day, including key levels, remains unchanged.
To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:
As expected, the absence of significant data and news has maintained pressure on the euro. Buying interest may now appear near the 1.0642 level. With no major US statistics in the afternoon, traders' reactions in this area will be crucial. A false breakout at this level, similar to the morning scenario, could signal the start of long positions, allowing for a correction toward 1.0690, which served as resistance earlier. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid buying opportunity, targeting 1.0726. The ultimate target is the 1.0759 high, where profits will be taken.
If the pair declines further and no buying activity occurs near 1.0642, the euro will likely remain bearish. In such a case, I will consider buying only after a false breakout near the next support level at 1.0601. Alternatively, I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0569, targeting a 30-35 point correction.
To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:
In the event of a rise, sellers will focus on defending the 1.0690 resistance level. A false breakout here will provide an entry point for short positions, targeting a decline to the 1.0642 support. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest, will create an additional selling opportunity, potentially pushing the pair toward the weekly low of 1.0601 and confirming a new downtrend. The final target will be the 1.0569 area, where profits will be taken.
If EUR/USD rises in the afternoon and bears fail to act at 1.0690, which seems unlikely, buyers may attempt a correction. In this case, I will postpone selling until the 1.0726 resistance level, where the moving averages favor sellers. Short positions will also be considered after a failed consolidation at this level. I will sell immediately on a rebound from 1.0759, targeting a 30-35 point downward correction.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
The October 29 COT report indicated a sharp increase in short positions and a modest rise in long positions. Note that this data does not account for recent US labor market statistics or the full market reaction to public opinion polls on the presidential election. Additionally, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a rate cut is expected, makes the report less relevant.
The COT report showed long non-commercial positions increased by 6,154 to 159,313, while short positions rose by 27,934 to 209,617. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions widened by 543.
Indicator Signals
Moving Averages:Trading is below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating further downward pressure on the pair.
Bollinger Bands:The lower boundary of the indicator near 1.0661 serves as support in case of a decline.
Indicator Descriptions:
- Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
- Period: 50, shown in yellow.
- Period: 30, shown in green.
- MACD Indicator: Tracks the convergence/divergence of moving averages.
- Fast EMA: Period 12.
- Slow EMA: Period 26.
- SMA: Period 9.
- Bollinger Bands: Tracks price volatility.
- Period: 20.
- Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using futures markets for speculative purposes.
- Long Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
- Short Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
- Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.
