On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rose toward the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and returned to the support zone of 1.2709–1.2734. Consolidation below this zone could pave the way for a continuation of the decline toward the 1.2611–1.2620 zone and possibly signal the end of the bullish trend. A rebound from the 1.2709–1.2734 zone would maintain the bullish trend and allow for a return to the 1.2788–1.2801 level.
The wave structure raises no questions. A new upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave did not breach the prior low. This suggests the potential completion of the bearish trend and the start of a bullish one. However, I believe the bullish trend could remain weak. Last week, the bulls attacked confidently despite the mixed information background.
Friday brought plenty of news. The Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports provided no clear direction for the dollar. However, wage growth and consumer sentiment reports tilted the scales positively. Wages rose by 4% YoY, exceeding forecasts and posing a threat to further declines in the Consumer Price Index. This increases the likelihood of rising U.S. inflation for November and reduces the probability of the FOMC easing monetary policy in December—positive news for the dollar.
Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 71.8 to 74.0, surpassing trader expectations. As a result, the "supplementary" reports drew market attention to the positive aspects of the Nonfarm Payrolls data rather than the negative unemployment figures. Traders now await the upcoming inflation report, which could clarify expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. While the market still anticipates another rate cut, surprises could be in store.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This opens the door for continued growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0%, or 1.2861. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.2728 could signal the resumption of the bearish trend clearly visible on the 4H chart.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment among non-commercial traders has become less bullish over the past reporting week. Long positions decreased by 403 positions, while short positions increased by 1,905 positions. Although bulls still hold the advantage, it is diminishing noticeably in recent months. The gap between long and short positions now stands at just 19,000 positions (98,000 vs. 79,000).
Over the last three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 98,000, while short positions have risen from 52,000 to 79,000. This suggests professional players may continue reducing their long positions or increasing shorts over time, as all possible bullish factors for the pound seem to have been priced in. Graphical analysis also supports a decline in the pound.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UKMonday's economic calendar has no significant entries, meaning the informational background will have no influence on trader sentiment today.
Forecast and Trading Tips for GBP/USDSelling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.2788–1.2801 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2709–1.2734. This target was achieved on Friday. New sales are possible if the pair closes below 1.2709–1.2734, with a target of 1.2611–1.2620. At this time, I would avoid considering purchases, although there is no clear evidence yet of the current bullish trend ending.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
