Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the British Pound
Testing the price level of 1.2761 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark. This confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 1.2739. Buying from this level following Scenario #2 allowed for an additional profit of approximately 20 points.
The situation in currency markets remains tense as investors eagerly await U.S. inflation data. These figures will significantly influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, impacting the dollar and, consequently, the GBP/USD pair. If U.S. inflation continues to rise, it could prompt a more hawkish stance from the Fed, putting pressure on the British pound. However, even small changes in U.S. inflation data could trigger market volatility. Traders will closely monitor any signals indicating the future direction of central bank policy. Inflation data is always perceived as a critical economic health indicator, with significant implications for currency values.
For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1, disregarding MACD readings, as I anticipate strong, directional movements in the pair.
Buy Signal
- Scenario #1: Today, buying the pound is possible at the entry point near 1.2744 (green line on the chart) with a target level of 1.2787 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2787, I plan to exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a pullback of 30-35 points. The pound's rise today can only be expected following weak U.S. inflation data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2715 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise toward 1.2744 and 1.2787 can be anticipated.
Sell Signal
- Scenario #1: Selling the pound is planned after the 1.2715 level is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2683, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20-25 points. Sellers will be active only in response to strong U.S. inflation data.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2744 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.2715 and 1.2683 can be expected.
Chart Key:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually closing the trade, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually closing the trade, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: At entry, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of critical fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
