February began tumultuously. On the 1st, U.S. President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on goods from China and a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, excluding energy products. As a result, the markets opened with a decent gap.
On the weekly chart, the euro reached the embedded line of the descending turquoise price channel. While market participants assess the implications of Trump's decision, the euro may close the gap that has formed. Once the gap is closed, we anticipate the euro will continue its decline towards the support level of 1.0135 and potentially into the range of 0.9988–1.0030. The strategic target is 0.9885, which aligns with the embedded line of the red price channel.
From a technical perspective, the price correction could be influenced by the Marlin oscillator's signal line reversing from the support level marked by the lows of December 18 and January 10 (indicated by check marks). On the four-hour chart, both the oscillator and the price declined after the Marlin oscillator reversed twice from the boundary of the growth area (marked by arrows).
The Marlin oscillator has now entered the oversold zone. A correction of the oscillator back to the zero line is likely (as shown on the daily chart), which, along with the price closing the gap, would lead to a further decline. There is ample time for this movement before the U.S. employment data is released on Friday.
