Following the market crash triggered by President Trump's introduction of 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and China, the S&P 500 futures fell by 1.7%. As a result, the British pound opened the day with a gap of just over 100 pips. However, within three hours, the markets began to recover cautiously, aiming to close the gaps that had formed.
We believe the pound will succeed in closing this gap, with the correction limited by the MACD line on the daily timeframe. After the gap is closed, we expect a subsequent decline in price, targeting the key support level at 1.2186. Notably, the Marlin oscillator has just entered negative territory, suggesting that the gap closure may occur relatively quickly.
On the four-hour chart, the price decline coincided with the Marlin oscillator reversing from the neutral zero line. The oscillator's signal line has decisively broken out of a consolidation phase to the downside and has visually reached the oversold area. Even without the gap, it would have been difficult for the oscillator to maintain a downward trend. However, the presence of the gap heightens the likelihood of an upward correction. We anticipate that the correction will soon conclude, followed by a resumption of the pound's decline.
