Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.2935 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. A short time later, there was another test of 1.2935, and this time the MACD was in the oversold zone, which enabled Scenario #2 for a buy trade. Although not immediately, the pound eventually rose.
Weak lending data from the UK put renewed pressure on the pound and limited its upward potential. Investors had likely expected more robust figures, especially considering the Bank of England's recent statements emphasizing the need for a tighter monetary policy. However, the statistics showed otherwise, triggering a wave of pound selling.
In the second half of the day, aside from the US Chicago PMI, there are no other major economic releases, so the pound does have a chance to rise. If the figure beats expectations, it could spark further pound growth. Otherwise, a downward correction may be in store. It's also important not to ignore global economic factors that could influence the currency's movement—particularly Donald Trump's statements regarding reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect in a number of countries in just two days.
As for the intraday strategy, I'll focus primarily on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.2972 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3018 (thicker green line). Around 1.3018, I'll exit long positions and switch to short trades (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A rise in the pound today will depend on weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2939 level, when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.2972 and 1.3018 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking below 1.2939 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2896, where I'll exit shorts and open immediate long positions (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Sellers are likely to step in if US data proves strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2972, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2939 and 1.2896 can be expected.
Chart Key:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
- Thick green line – suggested Take Profit or manual profit-fix level, as growth beyond it is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
- Thick red line – suggested Take Profit or manual profit-fix level, as further decline beyond it is unlikely
- MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of trades before major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and are trading with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.
