Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:
On Thursday, several macroeconomic events are scheduled, with the U.S. ISM Services PMI being the most significant. At this moment, we believe there is little value in analyzing the macroeconomic context. In recent weeks, market participants have frequently ignored macroeconomic data, shifting their focus to Trump's trade tariffs. We had assumed that the hype surrounding this topic was gradually fading and that the market was starting to grow accustomed once again to Trump's ambition to "Make America Great Again." However, as practice has shown, Trump still has many methods and decisions that can plunge all markets into complete chaos.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
There is no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade tariffs. The dollar's decline may continue for several more days, and we recommend that traders pay close attention to statements from leaders of major countries and alliances regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump has stated that any response to his efforts to "eliminate injustice" will be met with harsh new sanctions and tariffs. So, anyone who thought yesterday's tariffs were final and the rates were set is sorely mistaken. Now, lengthy and complex negotiations begin with all the sanctioned countries that cannot afford to accept Trump's tariffs. Retaliatory measures from major players—such as the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and others—are on the way.
General Conclusions:
On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as Trump has once again done everything he can to push the dollar lower. This is likely far from the last market shock of 2025. The global trading system is being reshaped, and we can expect significant shifts in trade flows. Many companies and countries will look for new markets, redirect exports, and form new trade alliances and agreements. This will result in a significant redistribution of capital and trade flows.
Key Rules for the Trading System:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.
Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.
