The euro and the pound resumed growth after news that the reciprocal trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. were roughly in line with market expectations. Although the U.S. stock market encountered new issues, such developments were not observed in the currency market.
Speaking from the White House Rose Garden, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports from countries considered key U.S. trading partners. The European Union expects new customs duties to raise current tariffs by 20%. This will undoubtedly force Brussels to prepare for increased import tariffs, increasing costs for European consumers and businesses.
This move could become modern U.S. trade history's most radical protectionist decision. Trump justified his stance by citing the need to protect American manufacturers and jobs from unfair competition by foreign companies. He also emphasized that the current trade system is unfair to the U.S. and that change is long overdue.
Today, demand for the euro may persist, but this will depend on solid fundamental data from the eurozone. Services PMI and composite indices are expected. If the data disappoints, the euro could come under pressure. Traders will also be watching trade tariff headlines, as today marks the start of new car tariffs and potentially the EU's response to these developments.
In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the U.S. ISM Services PMI. The index is expected to remain strong, which could support the U.S. dollar. The eurozone PPI data will also be a focus, which provides key insights into regional inflation trends. Traders closely monitor these figures as they may precede changes in consumer prices and influence future European Central Bank policy. The ECB's monetary policy meeting minutes will also be published, which could offer more clarity on the rate outlook. However, it is already evident that no further rate cuts are expected, suggesting that the euro's strength may continue.
If data aligns with economist expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is preferable. If data deviates significantly from forecasts, a Momentum strategy is more effective.
Momentum Strategy (on breakout):
EUR/USD
Buy on breakout above 1.0925, target: 1.0952 and 1.0997
Sell on breakout below 1.0884, target: 1.0845 and 1.0810
GBP/USD
Buy on breakout above 1.3098, target: 1.3131 and 1.3171
Sell on breakout below 1.3050, target: 1.3005 and 1.2955
USD/JPY
Buy on breakout above 147.52, target: 148.20 and 148.80
Sell on breakout below 147.15, target: 146.78 and 146.49
Mean Reversion Strategy (on pullbacks):
EUR/USD
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.0939 with a return below
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.0878 with a return above
GBP/USD
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3093 with a return below
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3032 with a return above
AUD/USD
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6307 with a return below
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6263 with a return above
USD/CAD
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4264 with a return below
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4220 with a return above
