The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022. This decline is driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume its interest rate cutting cycle later this year.
At present, traders see a rate cut in July as less likely and estimate the probability of a cut in September at around 74%. These expectations were reinforced by Friday's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which unexpectedly showed a decline in consumer spending in May.
Additionally, concerns about a worsening fiscal outlook in the US are prompting dollar supporters to adopt a more cautious stance. The Senate narrowly approved a procedural vote to begin debate on Donald Trump's large-scale "One Big Beautiful Bill," which would increase the federal deficit by approximately 3.3 trillion dollars over the next decade. A shift in risk sentiment is also weighing on demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. This is a key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair and reinforcing the short-term bullish outlook.
For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the JOLTS job openings report, and the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Overall, current fundamental factors are creating favorable conditions for GBP/USD buyers.
From a technical perspective, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, the path of least resistance for the pair continues to point upward.
