It is evident that even after the weak US labor market data—which points to a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve—there was no sharp or explosive demand for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency assets. This suggests that the market correction is not yet complete, and we are likely to see trading within a channel, with a gradual renewal of weekly lows. In the worst-case scenario, sell-offs will be sharp and rather significant.
Investors appeared to ignore the potentially dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, which is usually seen as a positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. There are several possible reasons for such a muted reaction. Firstly, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility and growth in recent months, which might have undermined the confidence of some investors. Secondly, expectations of monetary easing by the Fed have already been, to some extent, priced into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Data from Farside also confirms the lack of demand. As the figures show, by the end of last week, inflows to spot BTC ETFs continued to stagnate near record highs. Inflows to spot ETH ETFs have also slowed down considerably. This trend is definitely concerning for traders, who had previously placed high hopes on ETFs as a catalyst for a new rally in the crypto sector.
Nevertheless, the situation is not entirely negative. Sustained institutional interest in spot ETFs remains a significant factor supporting the market. In addition, the development of infrastructure and the expansion of cryptocurrency use cases can, in the long term, attract new market participants. In the near future, the inflow dynamics into spot ETFs will remain an important indicator of investor sentiment and the potential direction of the cryptocurrency market.
As for the intraday crypto market strategy, I will continue to act by buying into any major dips in Bitcoin and Ether, counting on the continuation of the medium-term bull market, which remains intact.
Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Bitcoin
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $111,400, targeting a rise to $112,100. Once I reach around $112,100, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is also possible from the lower boundary of $110,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back up toward $111,400 and $112,100.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $110,800, targeting a fall to $110,100. Around $110,100, I will exit the sells and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is also possible from the upper boundary of $111,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move down to $110,800 and $110,100.
Ethereum
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: I will buy Ether today upon reaching the entry point around $4,318, aiming for growth to $4,363. Once the price reaches around $4,363, I will exit the buys and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Ether is also possible from the lower boundary of $4,284 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back up toward $4,318 and $4,363.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: I will sell Ether today upon reaching the entry point around $4,284, targeting a fall to $4,242. Once the price reaches around $4,242, I will exit the sell and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Ether is also possible from the upper boundary of $4,318 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move down to $4,284 and $4,242.
