Trade review and tips for trading the euro
The first test of 1.1768 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below zero, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.1768 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, which allowed scenario #2 (buy) to materialize, but no significant rally followed. News of a sharper-than-expected decline in German producer prices had a negative impact on the euro. The decline in prices will benefit the country's economy and manufacturers, but that alone is not enough. Other economic indicators also need to show improvement. Against this backdrop, the euro weakened against the US dollar and other major world currencies.
In the second half of the day, no US economic reports are scheduled, and attention will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. Market participants are unlikely to analyze her remarks closely, as the Fed's course toward easing policy by year-end is already priced in. Daly's comments on inflation trends and the outlook for further rate cuts will carry particular weight. However, as noted above, expectations should not be too high. Most likely, she will prefer a cautious and balanced tone, avoiding categorical statements that could trigger market instability.
As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at around 1.1764 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1834. At 1.1834 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A large euro rally today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1732, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1764 and 1.1834 can be expected.
Sell signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1732 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1669, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair will persist today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1764, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1732 and 1.1669 can be expected.
Chart notes:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
- Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
- Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious in making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
