For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (see lower chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (see upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any global corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe that the upward trend remains intact.
The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has formed a five-wave pattern a-b-c-d-e and may now be complete. If this is the case, the instrument is currently at the very early stage of forming a new upward wave set.
Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended at any moment. Even the presumed wave 4, which has already been forming for almost five months, could take on a five-wave shape, in which case we would continue to see a correction for several more months. However, at present, the formation of an upward wave set may begin. If this assumption is correct, we have already seen its first wave, and the second wave may complete around current levels.
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose by 40 basis points on Thursday, giving the pound some hope. However, the movement amplitude was once again weak, and the 40 points that had been gained by the start of the U.S. session represent the entirety of today's movement. The market reacted very weakly (so far) to the key U.S. labor market and unemployment reports, but the day is not yet over. In fact, the movements of the instrument over the next 24 hours will determine where the price will head in the coming weeks.
This depends on how the market interprets the information received. Let me remind you that reports themselves do not move prices up or down. Prices move because market participants draw certain conclusions from economic data. Judging by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the labor market is not in such poor condition, which makes a Fed rate cut in December impractical amid inflation in the U.S. that has been rising for five months. Thus, the news background for the dollar has even improved, and traders have gained confidence in a "hawkish" Fed decision in December.
But it's not that simple. The labor market data for September can already be considered outdated, and no other data is available yet. There will be no reports for October, and data for November will only become available early next month. And if that data turns out to be very weak, market expectations for a new round of Fed easing at the last meeting of the year will immediately surge.
General Conclusions
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal structure has become complicated. Wave 4 has taken a three-wave form, and its structure has become very extended. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c of 4 looks fully complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets near the 1.38 and 1.40 levels. In the short term, the formation of wave 3 or c may be expected, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360.
The higher-scale wave pattern looks almost ideal, even though wave 4 moved beyond the high of wave 1. But let me remind you that ideal wave patterns exist only in textbooks. In practice, everything is much more complicated. At this time, I do not see reasons to consider alternative scenarios to the upward trend segment.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often indicate changes.
- If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
- There can never be 100% certainty about the market direction. Don't forget protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
