Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency
The price test of 1.1595 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 18 points.
The statistical data published in the morning on Germany and credit dynamics in the eurozone did not help restore demand for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair is showing a correction while maintaining chances for further growth. However, today we are unlikely to see major market movements. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving, so active trading in the second half of the day is not expected. It is better to rely on trading within the channel, using major support and resistance levels. Only unexpected political statements may disrupt the market balance. But, as a rule, on such days any sharp market fluctuation is quickly reversed in the opposite direction.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1599 (the green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 1.1628. At 1.1628, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will show strong growth today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1575 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1599 and 1.1628 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1575 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1553 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points from the level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1599 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1575 and 1.1553 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
- Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
- Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones
Important
Beginner Forex traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
