Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test of 1.3246 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.
The pound fell noticeably in the absence of UK statistics, partially offsetting yesterday's rise. This resembles the classic "swing" movement in currency markets, where short-term impulses are followed by corrective movements, reflecting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. Yesterday's optimism was likely triggered by details of the budget, which investors viewed as positive for economic growth or at least as mitigating negative effects. However, without fresh data and amid overall uncertainty, the euphoria quickly faded.
In the second half of the day, the GBP/USD pair is likely to move within a narrow range limited by the nearest support and resistance levels. Markets will be closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, which implies calm trading for GBP/USD. I recommend exercising patience and caution, avoiding large risks, and considering alternative strategies or instruments if traders are seeking more active trading opportunities.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3238 (the green line on the chart), targeting an increase to the level of 1.3267 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3267, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points downward from the level). Significant pound growth is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3212 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3238 and 1.3267 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3212 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3192 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points upward from the level). Continued pressure on the pound is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3238 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3212 and 1.3192 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
- Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit may be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
- Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit may be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones
Important
Beginner Forex traders need to make market entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
