Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.1570 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 pips.
Today, important data will be released regarding the business activity index in the manufacturing sectors of Germany, France, and the Eurozone. Weak PMI data could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown in the Eurozone, especially given recent economic indicators pointing to slowing growth. The European Central Bank is closely monitoring these indicators to determine its future monetary policy. If the PMI figures come in significantly below expectations, the ECB could be forced to reconsider its interest rate plans. The impact of this data will also be felt in the currency market. A decline in the PMI could weaken the euro against other major currencies, such as the U.S. dollar and the British pound.
Moving forward, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Scenarios
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching an entry price around 1.1605 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1635. At the level of 1.1635, I intend to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on the rebound, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be expected after favorable reports. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1590 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1605 and 1.1635.
Sell Scenarios
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1590 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1561, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately on the rebound (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1605 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to opposing levels of 1.1590 and 1.1561.
Chart Explanation:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Estimated price for placing Take Profit or taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Estimated price for placing Take Profit or taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: It is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.
Important Note:
Beginner traders in the Forex market need to exercise caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
