Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3504 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved down significantly from the zero mark. A second test at 1.3504 occurred when the MACD was recovering from oversold territory, allowing the realization of Scenario No. 2: buying the pound. However, the pair did not rise as expected.
Today, there are no economic reports for the UK, so trading will remain within the sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers suggests that the British pound will consolidate against other major currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar and the euro. Market participants will focus on technical levels and minor fluctuations in sentiment rather than fundamental factors. In such conditions, short-term traders may attempt to profit from small fluctuations within the established range, using scalping strategies or trading from the channel boundaries. However, it is important to remember the increased risk of false breakouts due to low liquidity and speculative activity.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buying Scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3502 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3530 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3530, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3480 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3502 and 1.3530.
Selling Scenarios
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3480 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3464 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and also buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest themselves during the correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3502 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3480 and 1.3464.
What is on the Chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.
Important Note:
Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
