The official version sounds like this. Venezuela remains one of the world leaders in the production and distribution of narcotics; the current Caracas regime facilitates this, and the majority of the drugs end up in the United States — a situation Donald Trump intends to put an end to. However, every coin has a reverse side.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stated that America is stoking a war in the region and demanded to sit down at the negotiating table. It is hard for me to imagine that Trump will begin negotiations with the Maduro regime, since in recent months, he has repeatedly demanded Maduro's resignation and a change of power in the country. Therefore, the White House leader has outlined his scenario for this conflict and is not prepared to negotiate with terrorists (in his view).
Maduro insists that the problem lies not in the distribution of drugs across US territory but in America imposing its will — something America "sins" by rather often under Trump. Maduro rejected any accusations that he is the leader of a terrorist organization distributing banned substances and said that Washington's true goal is to establish control over Venezuelan oil, natural resources, and gold.
Maduro also said his country is ready for negotiations both on drug trafficking and on investments in the Venezuelan oil industry (if America wants to enter that market). However, Trump's policy is known worldwide. It is ultimatums that must be complied with; otherwise, sanctions, tariffs, blockades, or (as in Venezuela's case) a military operation and air strikes will follow.
Based on the above, it is evident that Maduro wants to retain power in the country and negotiate with Washington. At the same time, Trump sees no reason to negotiate with the "head of a drug cartel" and demands Maduro's immediate departure from the presidency. The conflict may end very quickly if Maduro accepts Trump's demands, or it may drag on for many years.
Based on all of the above, I believe the dollar will be under pressure next week, regardless of US economic data, which may only create additional problems for the American currency. The dollar continues to be fired upon from all sides. In 2025, this was the trade war, Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, the FOMC's "dovish" monetary policy prospects, and uncertainty related to Donald Trump's policies. In 2026, this may be US military conflicts, a new escalation of the trade war, and Fed rate cuts.
Wave picture for EUR/USD:
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25-figure level. The current upward wave set may not be complete, but three waves have been built. If it develops further, one should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, which correspond to 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci. But in the near term, a corrective wave or a set of waves may be forming.
Wave picture for GBP/USD:
The wave picture of GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its construction with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I expected the formation of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its construction, so in the near term, a downward wave or a set of waves may be observed.
Main principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
- If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
- There is never and can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
