Wall Street — a fall to earth
Months of optimism in the high-tech sector collided with a harsh dose of reality. A massive sell-off in semiconductor stocks and software developers, triggered by inflated multiples and weak forecasts from key AI industry players, ended the US market's record nine-week winning streak. Investors began to widely doubt the long-term sustainability of the current tech supercycle. The historic rally on the New York exchanges abruptly collapsed on Friday amid cascading sell-offs.
The high-tech Nasdaq 100 plunged 4.8%, while the semiconductor index plunged about 10%, posting its worst daily performance in many months. The main trigger for the panic was growing concern among large funds about the overvaluation of AI assets, which forced institutional investors to hurriedly close positions and take profits. Geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East escalated out of control, instantly reviving inflation fears in the world's largest economies and heightening the risks of physical disruption to commodity transit along key sea routes.
Commodity markets reacted at lightning speed. Futures for WTI and Brent jumped 2.8% at the open of Asian trading. The local price surge was only slightly tempered after an emergency statement from President Donald Trump, who rushed to reassure market participants that the current escalation would not destroy the framework for negotiations toward a global peace settlement in the region. The final blow to stock-buying sentiment came from an unexpectedly strong U.S. Department of Labor report showing an increase of 172,000 new jobs — more than double Wall Street's consensus forecast of 85,000.
Such a powerful inflationary impulse forced derivatives market participants to urgently revise their strategies. Traders in federal funds futures instantly pushed the probability of another Fed rate hike to 60% for the October 2026 meeting. The fresh data overturned analysts' previous calculations, triggering another leg up in Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and a general tightening of global financial conditions. Surface calm on energy markets masks massive structural imbalances, and experts openly point to unseen factors that are artificially maintaining a fragile balance between supply and demand.
Oil: from $118 to $95
Four months of the most acute oil crisis in decades have failed to bring Washington and Tehran closer to a compromise, leaving the market stuck in anxious anticipation. The main paradox is that the North Sea benchmark Brent has steadily corrected from March four-year highs of $118 per barrel to levels below $95, returning to ranges common over the past two decades. And this has happened while the key global artery — the Strait of Hormuz — has remained tightly blocked for more than 90 days, removing roughly 13% of total supply from global circulation.
Local price optimism among traders rests mainly on Trump's repeated assurances of an imminent peace deal. However, the reality in the Persian Gulf contradicts White House statements. The parties continue to exchange strikes, and signing a lasting agreement in the near term looks unlikely. Moreover, even a hypothetical reopening of the strait in the coming weeks would not immediately restore logistics flows. Traders, international insurance syndicates, and shipowners will delay returning tanker freight to the region as long as possible, weighing military risks and fearing the re-arrest of vessels.
The clandestine schemes observed for exporting hydrocarbons by desperate players are patchy and cannot replace the systematic strategies of transnational majors. In an environment of total informational opacity, the risk of critical miscalculations by oil traders grows by the day. The key question facing the industry in June 2026 is: what is the real buffer in global fuel stocks? Since the first strikes on February 28, sovereign governments and private corporations have been burning through commercial inventories and state strategic reserves at an unprecedented pace.
According to official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the pace of erosion of the safety cushion looks alarming:
- In March, the decline in global stocks of crude oil and refined petroleum products amounted to 5.27 million barrels per day.
- In April, the rate of inventory depletion accelerated to 8.62 million barrels per day.
- In May, measurements recorded a drawdown of about 9 million barrels per day.
- In June, analysts forecast that, due to the seasonal summer consumption peak in the Northern Hemisphere, the figure could reach a catastrophic 11 million barrels per day.
The scale of this latent shortfall is staggering — current daily volumes being drained from storage are now equivalent to the production of the entire kingdom of Saudi Arabia in its best pre-crisis periods. The US energy sector clearly illustrates the magnitude of the unfolding commodity shortage. Total US crude stocks, including volumes in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), have fallen by a notable 10% since the start of the year, down to 1.5 billion barrels. That level is officially the lowest state of government reserves since 2004.
If the current rate of tank depletion continues over the coming weeks, inventories in Cushing risk breaching the psychological threshold of 20 million barrels. That level is considered a critical technical minimum, below which the stable operation of the hub and maintenance of system pressure become impossible. The global market has so far demonstrated considerable flexibility, rapidly arranging alternative logistics schemes, but storage capacity is not infinite. Crossing critical thresholds will inevitably trigger a parabolic spike in prices, reflecting a real physical shortage.
China — from buying to a pause?
An additional source of uncertainty in commodity markets is China's behavior. The world's second?largest economy and largest hydrocarbon consumer reacted to the rising barrel price by sharply cutting purchases on external markets. During May, China's crude imports fell to a modest 6.36 million bpd, marking nearly a decade low. On one hand, Beijing's abrupt voluntary pullback eased competition for scarce tanker cargoes, relieving other importing countries.
On the other hand, China's actions have created a dangerous information vacuum. Beijing traditionally does not publish timely, detailed statistics on domestic fuel consumption, leaving traders without reliable benchmarks. What might be behind the opacity:
- Local refineries may have switched to accelerated drawdown of accumulated commercial stocks.
- Chinese authorities may have tapped their large but completely opaque sovereign strategic reserves.
If the scenario of secret use of China's internal reserves is confirmed, it would mean that the real volume of global oil supply is much tighter than exchange consensus models assume. Otherwise, the current drop in imports points to a sharp stagnation in China's real sector and a deep fall in demand. Alongside tectonic shifts in the physical oil market, complex diplomatic maneuvers continue on the geopolitical track. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei has confirmed that Tehran and Washington have not broken direct contacts and continue to exchange closed messages. Pakistan is acting as a key intermediary in the negotiations, making significant efforts to keep the parties at the negotiating table.
Dollar: between rise and... rise
Leading international analysts agree that in the short term the US dollar will continue to trade in established horizontal corridors, but they expect a gradual weakening by the end of the year. This pessimism is driven by growing hopes for a near?term diplomatic resolution of the Middle East crisis, which should offset the current inflationary spike. Over the past three months, since the start of hostilities, the dollar's trajectory has served as a precise barometer of market fears, mirroring any shifts in geopolitical risk.
A local escalation forced speculators to urgently liquidate short positions and shift into safe?haven assets, giving the dollar index (DXY) a net gain of around 2%. Fuel?related overheating and the monetary policy deadlock among major central banks have also helped keep the dollar elevated. The North Sea Brent benchmark recorded an aggressive surge, exceeding pre?war baseline levels by more than 35%, which will inevitably boost macroeconomic costs worldwide. Treasury yields have also risen, and traders now have to price scenarios of yields remaining at highs or even rising further by year?end under pressure from the Fed's hawkish wing.
Kit Jukes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, links a potential dollar retreat to a revival of global risk appetite and diplomatic optimism around the Persian Gulf. He believes that after a peace deal is secured, Washington will avoid extreme monetary tightening, since excessively expensive credit would be unacceptable to the administration.
By contrast, Alex Cohen of Bank of America is convinced that prolonged Middle East uncertainty and falling non?resident demand for US assets will preserve the current status quo, and any dollar decline will be short?lived. With each passing day, the risks of entrenched expensive oil and a global price shock grow, potentially pushing the dollar to local strengthening, especially if the Fed adopts an uncompromising stance.
Domestic political dynamics add to the intrigue. Despite Donald Trump's direct calls to lower borrowing costs, his Fed appointee Kevin Warsh will face enormous institutional pressure and will be compelled to maintain tight monetary parameters to suppress inflation. Mid?term trajectories for the US currency therefore remain highly uncertain, and prior analyst confidence in a cascade decline of the dollar has noticeably weakened — a significant minority of experts now expect only minimal weakening or even continued bullishness.
When polling the positions for the end of June, the views of 40 leading currency strategists were distributed as follows:
- 21 analysts (just over half the sample) expect current price ranges to be maintained without sharp swings;
- 8 specialists forecast further accumulation of net long positions in the US dollar;
Only 2 experts believe the market can return to net short positions.
June 8
June 8, 02:50 / Japan / GDP growth in Q1 / prev.: -2.5% / actual: 0.8% / forecast: 2.1% / USD/JPY — down
In the previous period, Japan's economic growth accelerated to 2.1% year-on-year thanks to increased:
- private consumption
- net exports
- government infrastructure investment
At the same time, high interest rates caused some slowdown in business capital expenditure. The Q1 report is forecast to show GDP growth of 2.1%. Confirmation of the forecast would signal resilience in the macroeconomic upswing and strengthen the yen.
June 8, 09:00 / Germany / Industrial orders (m/m) for April / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 5.0% / forecast: -1.2% / EUR/USD — down
Manufacturing orders in Germany jumped 5.0% month-on-month in March, far exceeding market expectations. The positive dynamic was broad-based, including electrical equipment and machinery, supported by both domestic demand and a surge in export orders from euro?area countries. Analysts had expected a decline to -1.2% in April and a weakening euro.
June 8, 11:30 / Eurozone / Sentix investor confidence (leading) for June / prev.: -19.2 pts / actual: -16.4 pts / forecast: -13.8 pts / EUR/USD — up
The Sentix investor confidence index in the eurozone recorded a modest recovery to -16.4 points in the previous period, remaining in pessimistic territory. The indicator provides a timely gauge of the region's macro health based on a market participants' survey. The leading June report is forecast to show a further improvement to -13.8 points.
June 8, 18:00 / US / Consumer inflation expectations in May / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.6% / forecast: 3.8% / USDX (6?currency USD index) — up
Short?term US consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April, a one?year high. Despite a local drop in expected gasoline and food prices, overall uncertainty among households about future inflation and unemployment increased. The May report is forecast to push inflation expectations up to 3.8%. Confirmation of the forecast would point to sustained inflationary pressures and strengthen the US dollar.
June 9
June 9, 02:01 / UK / Retail sales growth in May / prev.: 3.1% / actual: -3.4% / forecast: 3.1% / GBP/USD — up
UK retail sales fell sharply by 3.4% year?on?year in April, recording the first decline in retail activity in recent years. Falling consumer confidence amid geopolitical tensions around Iran forced households to cut back on discretionary and big?ticket spending. Analysts expect a rebound to 3.1% in May. If confirmed, this would indicate recovery in consumer demand and strengthen the pound.
June 9, 03:30 / Australia / Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment (leading) for June / prev.: -12.5 pts / actual: 3.5 pts / forecast: -1.2 pts / AUD/USD — down
Australia's Westpac consumer sentiment index recovered in May, rising 3.5% after falling to multi?year lows the previous month. Temporary fuel tax relief measures partially offset the tightening stance of the central bank and supported the improvement. Long?term economic expectations remain pessimistic amid inflation risks. The leading June report is forecast to show a moderate decline; confirmation would imply persistent consumer uncertainty and weaken the Australian dollar.
June 9, 03:30 / Australia / Consumer confidence index for June / prev.: 80.1 pts / actual: 83.0 pts / forecast: 82.0 pts / AUD/USD — down
The overall consumer confidence index in Australia rose to 83.0 in May, partly recovering from a deep prior decline. However, the current optimism level remains well below its long?term average. Analysts forecast a slight pullback in June; if the data match the forecast, it would confirm the fragility of the consumer recovery and weaken the AUD.
June 9, 04:30 / Australia / NAB business confidence for June (leading) / prev.: -29 pts / actual: -24 pts / forecast: -22 pts / AUD/USD — up
Australia's NAB business confidence index improved modestly in April but remained negative. Industry and services sectors continue to face strong pressure from high energy prices and rising costs, reducing margins and limiting capex, which keeps the RBA on a high-rate footing. The leading June report is forecast to show further improvement; if realized, this would mark a gradual recovery in corporate sentiment and strengthen the Aussie.
June 9, 06:00 / China / Export share in trade balance for May (surplus) / prev.: 2.5% / actual: 14.1% / forecast: 14.3% / Brent — up, USD/CNY — down
China's export growth accelerated sharply to 14.1% year?on?year in April, a record high amid global firms building component inventories due to geopolitical risks. Renewed growth was recorded across key destinations including the U.S. (despite tariffs), Europe and Southeast Asia. The May report is expected to show further acceleration. Confirmation would point to strong external trade and push oil prices up while strengthening the yuan.
June 9, 06:00 / China / Import share in trade balance for May (surplus) / prev.: 27.8% / actual: 25.3% / forecast: 25.0% / Brent — up, USD/CNY — down
China's imports rose 25.3% year?on?year in April, remaining at record purchase levels for the second month due to robust domestic demand. High activity was seen in high?tech sectors, with increased purchases of:
- semiconductors
- computer equipment
Energy imports showed mixed dynamics due to logistics disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The May report is forecast to show a slowdown in import growth. If confirmed, that would signal stabilization of domestic demand and support Brent and the yuan.
June 9, 09:00 / Japan / Machine tool orders in May / prev.: 28.1% / actual: 45.1% / forecast: 37.0% / USD/JPY — up
Machine tool orders in Japan surged 45.1% year?on?year in April, a multi?year high driven by strong domestic and external demand. Analysts expect annual growth to moderate to 37.0% in May. If the data match the forecast, it would indicate a slowdown in business investment activity and weaken the yen.
June 9, 09:00 / Germany / Export share in trade balance for April (surplus) / prev.: -1.5% / actual: 3.6% / forecast: -1.7% / EUR/USD — down
German exports unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in March, hitting a local high despite falling shipments to key markets such as the US and China. Strong intra?eurozone trade helped offset external geopolitical shocks. April's report is forecast to reverse to -1.7%. If realized, this would signal cooling external trade and weaken the euro.
June 9, 09:00 / Germany / Import share in trade balance for April (surplus) / prev.: -5.1% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 0.8% / EUR/USD — down
German imports rose 4.9% in March to the highest level since late 2022, driven by increased purchases from:
- China
- the UK
This sharp import growth outpaced consensus forecasts and reflects resilient domestic demand despite price pressures. April's release is expected to show a slowdown to 0.8%. Confirmation would indicate stabilization of domestic procurement and weaken the euro.
June 9, 09:00 / Germany / Industrial production growth in April (m/m) / prev.: -0.5% / actual: -0.7% / forecast: 0.4% / EUR/USD — up
German industrial production fell 0.7% month?on?month in March, recording the deepest recent drop due to a sharp fall in energy output and stagnation in machinery. Local rebounds in autos and construction were unable to offset the overall decline in capital goods. Analysts expect a solid return to growth of 0.4% in April; confirmation would signal the start of industrial recovery and strengthen the euro.
June 9, 13:00 / US / NFIB small business optimism index for May / prev.: 95.8 pts / actual: 95.9 pts / forecast: 96.0 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) — up
The NFIB small business optimism index in the US remained near multi?month lows in April, staying below its long?run average. Key constraints for the private sector are persistent inflationary pressure, rising costs, and a drop in the employment subindex, despite some reduction in overall uncertainty. The May report is forecast to edge up to 96.0; confirmation would indicate small businesses adapting to tough conditions and support the dollar.
June 9, 15:30 / US / ADP private sector job growth (weekly) / prev.: 40.75k / actual: 35.75k / forecast: — / USDX (6?currency USD index) — volatile
ADP data showed the 4?week average private?sector job gain in the US slowed to 35.75k, marking the first deterioration after three weeks of improvement. With no consensus forecast, the weekly release is likely to create local uncertainty. Continued signs of a cooling labor market absent a forecast will add volatility to the dollar index.
June 9, 15:30 / Canada / Trade balance in April (surplus) / prev.: 5.11 bn / actual: 1.78 bn / forecast: 2.6 bn / USD/CAD — down
Canada recorded a trade surplus of CAD 1.78 bn in March, supported by strong exports of metals and energy amid high global oil prices. Imports moderated, mainly due to reduced purchases of:
- aircraft equipment
- pharmaceuticals
Analysts expect the surplus to widen to CAD 2.6 bn in April. Confirmation would signal stronger external positions and support the Canadian dollar.
June 9, 15:30 / US / Export value in trade balance for April (deficit) / prev.: 314.7 bn / actual: 320.9 bn / forecast: 329.1 bn / USDX — up
US exports rose 2.0% in March to a record USD 320.9 bn, boosted by higher shipments of crude oil and petroleum products amid the global price shock. Exports of services and consumer goods fell. April's report is forecast to increase exports further to USD 329.1 bn. Confirmation would signal strong capital inflows and strengthen the dollar.
June 9, 15:30 / US / Import value in trade balance for April (deficit) / prev.: 372.4 bn / actual: 381.2 bn / forecast: 387.0 bn / USDX — up
US imports rose to USD 381.2 bn in March, a one?year high driven by active purchases of:
- vehicles
- consumer goods
- computer accessories
These partially offset a decline in services imports. April is forecast to see further import growth to USD 387.0 bn. Realization of the forecast would confirm strong domestic demand and support the dollar.
June 9, 17:00 / US / Existing home sales in May / prev.: 4.01 mn / actual: 4.02 mn / forecast: 4.06 mn / USDX — up
US existing home sales rose slightly to 4.02 mn annualized in April, off a multi?month low. Rising mortgage rates following Treasury yields constrained the sector, although wage growth continues to support housing affordability. May is forecast to see sales accelerate to 4.06 mn. Confirmation would indicate a pickup in consumer activity in housing and strengthen the dollar.
June 9, 23:30 / US / Crude oil inventories (API) / prev.: -2.8 mln bbl / actual: -6.75 mln bbl / forecast: — / Brent — volatile
The American Petroleum Institute reported a 6.75 mln barrel draw in US commercial crude stocks, marking the seventh consecutive weekly decline. The drop in crude and distillate stocks was accompanied by a simultaneous increase in gasoline inventories, showing mixed dynamics in petroleum products. Continued inventory depletion amid no forecast is likely to keep Brent highly volatile.
