Donald Trump has lost unconditional power in the United States. As soon as that happened, the U.S. president's rhetoric began to soften almost visibly. Do not misunderstand me: Trump has always made contradictory statements, sometimes even within a single day. However, recent messages from the White House give hope for peace in the Middle East.
Start with the fact that Trump openly acknowledged the war with Iran cost Republicans the midterm elections. In other words, the White House leader understands who to thank for the defeat. Let us go a bit further. Republicans themselves were clearly unhappy with the crushing loss and signaled to Trump that another candidate could lead them in the future. In any case, Trump will leave the presidency in two years and cannot run a third term—this would contradict the Constitution. He has not reached the point of trying to change the Constitution.
Note also that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance openly called on Trump to end the war with Iran. It is unclear why he voices this now and where Vance was with such appeals months ago, but the fact remains. If the country's second-in-command opposes Trump, that means something. The Democrats need not be mentioned: with full control of Congress, they will use every opportunity to confront the president over the war. Rumors already circulate about a possible impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; Democrats want to investigate Trump's activities in digital assets; and an expansion of the military budget is off the table. Trump is willing to increase government borrowing, but Democrats will not allow that. Previously Democrats had almost no levers over Trump; now they do.
Yesterday Trump said new strikes on Iran are "unlikely." The president added a caveat: that is true only if the peace talks continue. According to varied reports, of which there is still no shortage, Iran is reportedly ready to make some concessions on the nuclear issue, and Washington is prepared to meet part of Iran's demands. As the saying goes, a poor peace is better than a good quarrel, and the ice has begun to move. Oil prices have already fallen below $100 per barrel, and if talks truly continue in good faith, they are unlikely to rise above $100. Unfortunately, diplomacy in 2026 has failed many times before, sometimes even worse than the Republicans' defeat. There are therefore no guarantees that Tehran and Washington will reach agreement now and not violate a ceasefire a week later.
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Trading recommendations for EUR/USD:
EUR/USD remains in a downtrend that lacks sufficient fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical support for a sustained reversal. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026 geopolitics first and then a hawkish Fed provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When the price sits below the moving average, consider shorts with targets at 1.1144 and 1.1108. Above the moving average, longs are relevant with targets at 1.1294 and 1.1353. However, first the pair needs to break out of the 1.1114–1.1265 sideways channel.
Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:
GBP/USD continues its upward tendency, which may form part of the broader 2022 global trend. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the U.S. economy, so we do not expect sustainable long-term dollar strength. 2026 has so far been positive for the dollar because geopolitics and inflation drove capital into safe havens and forced the Fed back to tightening. On the weekly timeframe the pair remains rangebound between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, supporting a medium-term bullish case for the pound. Consider longs above the moving average with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3523. If the price trades below the moving average, trade the downside toward 1.3367 and 1.3359.
Notes on illustrations:
- Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both point the same way, the trend is strong.
- The smoothed moving average (settings 20,0) defines the short-term trend and the direction to trade.
- Murray levels are target points for moves and corrections.
- Volatility bands (red lines) indicate the likely intraday price corridor based on current volatility metrics.
- CCI entering oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) territory signals an approaching trend reversal.
