Mounting tension between Russia and Turkey poses a real threat to the Turkish national currency. According to independent news sources, the Turkish lira is on the path towards its new historical lows. Recent shooting down of the Russian Su-24 warplane, which reportedly violated Turkish airspace, has already pushed the lira down. Now analysts state that the Turkish national currency has a fair chance of becoming the weakest on Forex. Economic sanctions against Turkey, which Russia had imposed in response to perfidious downing of its jet within Syrian airspace, became the major reason behind the current decrease in the lira. Besides, the looming Fed’s interest rate hike puts downward pressure on the currency exchange rate. Market participants expect the USD/TRY pair to hit its record low as early as the first quarter of 2016. Big fishes in the option market are already betting on the slump in the Turkish lira. In this context, only the Argentinian peso and Russian ruble are performing even worse. The conflict with Moscow cost Turkey heavy economic losses. Only the ban on package tours will result in an about 10% decline in the tourism sector, which is the driving force of Turkey’s economy. Against this background, experts can surely forecast a decrease in the country’s GDP growth rate, which was rather slow even before the current developments. Importantly, it was only the first portion of sanctions. “The list of Russia's limitation measures against Turkey may be expanded if necessary,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said.
