According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, oil prices in 2017 and 2018 are expected to fall by about $3 to $51.9 and $52 a barrel, respectively. The report said that a decline in oil prices was due to an increase in US crude stockpiles and a rise in demand. The IMF noted that an average oil price denominated in US dollars per barrel was $42.8 in 2016. Based on the futures market’s June 2017 data, oil price is seen to come in at $51.9 this year and $52 next year.
In April 2017, the IMF raised its forecast for global oil prices by $4 to $55.23 a barrel in 2017 and by $2 to $55.06 a barrel in 2018.
According to economists, on the upside, the prospects for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan are negative.
Among emerging low-income countries, commodity exporters generally need significant adjustments to eliminate macroeconomic imbalances, and for exporters of fuel this task is complicated by a long-term decline in oil prices, the IMF said.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected the crude oil market recovery at a-slower-than-expected pace. It raised its forecast for the growth of demand, citing a drop in oil reserves, but a slower pace than expected.
In June, the world’s oil output increased by 720,000 barrels a day to 97.46 million barrels a day. In the OPEC countries, production rose by 340,000 barrels a day to 32.6 million barrels a day.
In the reporting period, OPEC's compliance with cuts slumped to 78% from May’s level of 95% amid higher-than-allowed production in Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Iraq, the UAE and Venezuela offsetting strong compliance by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Angola.
