Goldman Sachs predicts that the investment inflows in Chinese government bonds will reach USD 1 trillion in 2018-2022.
A part of this sum, about USD 250 billion, is expected to be invested by global central banks. Other major investors will be sovereign funds and private financial institutions. Experts say that a rise in the demand for Chinese bonds can lead to an outflow of investments from debt instruments of other countries such as the United States and Japan.
According to Goldman Sachs, investment outflows can reach as much as USD 280 billion by the end of 2022 as a result of diversification of money flows into China. Similarly, outflows from the Japanese government bonds will come in at USD 66 billion. Experts estimate that Thailand may become the biggest loser with an outflow of at least USD 3 billion. In 2022, a share of the yuan in the global currency reserves may increase to 3-4%, Goldman Sachs predicts.
