Experts at business intelligence company Rystad Energy suppose that a protracted vaccination campaign has a negative effect on the economic recovery and oil demand in 2021. A drop in economic and oil demand expectations was mainly caused by the fact that some European countries temporarily refused to use the AstraZeneca vaccine.
The third coronavirus wave is already sweeping Europe. Concerns about the safety of the existing COVID-19 vaccines only deteriorate the situation. According to the forecasts provided by Rystad Energy, this year, oil demand may total 95.2 million barrels a day. However, it may just rise to 94.2 million barrels a day amid the slow vaccination rollout. At the moment, oil demand largely depends on the vaccination paces and the duration of the delay period.
Not so long ago, some European and Asian countries stopped the mass vaccination program, refusing to apply the medication developed by British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. Concerns over the vaccine safety became the main reason for such a decision. The European Union initially ordered 2.6 billion vaccines. Notably, 11 billion doses are required to vaccinate 70% of the world’s population. At the moment, only 8.5% of people in Western Europe received their doses. The indicator is expected to jump to 50% by June.
On the one hand, a temporary ban on one drug should not cause a lot of problems as it could be easily replaced by drugs developed by other companies. However, there are a lot of financial, technical, and bureaucratic problems that prevent the EU government from solving this issue.
Rystad Energy is sure that oil demand recovery will accelerate if at least 50% of the population in every country gets the COVID-19 vaccine.
