Despite the worldwide de-dollarization campaign, none of the economies has been able to dethrone the US dollar as the number one world’s reserve currency. Nevertheless, well-known experts come up with gloomy forecasts now and then. Zhang Yugui, the Dean of the International finance and trade department at the Shanghai university, is certain that the global economy will say farewell to the US dollar soon. The economist reckons that as soon as the state-run Saudi Aramco adopts the renminbi in invoices and settlements in oil transactions with China, this moment will be the big bang for the US dollar’s crash. His line of reasoning is based on clichés and hackneyed assumptions. Zhang Yugui says that the US dollar is doomed to failure, once central banks establish mechanisms for payment settlements in their national currencies. Besides, the US has made huge efforts to maintain the hegemony of its currency that has inevitably caused tectonic changes in the global monetary system. So, the hegemonic cycle of the US dollar is coming to an end. The compelling argument for the economist is that one day Saudi Arabia will sell part of its crude to China for the renminbi. Saudi Aramco is a behemoth with annual revenue of more than $350 billion. If it replaces the US dollar with the yuan in its oil trade with China, it will have an impact on the global commodity market.
A meticulous reader may wonder why the analyst gives priority to Saudi Aramco’s total revenue but not revenue from its sales to China. His pseudo-expert opinion does not stand out from a plethora of similar papers. Interestingly, Saudi Aramco brought up the idea of oil payments in the yuan six years ago. Thus, the crash of the US dollar seems less realistic.
