According to analysts' estimates, excessively hot weather causes coffee crop shortages and a sharp reduction in the number of regions suitable for coffee farming, spurring prices for a popular beverage. Roscongress and the Institute for the Study of World Markets released a study titled “Between Geopolitics and El Nino: Food as a Trigger of Inflation” which shows that almost 60% of wild coffee species are at risk of extinction, affected by a sharp rise in temperatures in Ethiopia and other East African countries. The research reads that the effects of climate shocks are adding to the challenges for the region's fragile economies. The study estimates that Guatemala, a key center of coffee bean production, will be most affected by drought between 2022 and 2023. High temperatures and lack of rainfall almost wiped out the coffee crop. These factors contributed to its price increase at retail by 40%. By 2050, the number of regions suitable for farming coffee may decrease by 50%. According to experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations, the El Nino factor - an increase in the temperature of the upper layer of water in the Pacific Ocean - also has an impact on the ambient temperature. The El Nino harms regions where coffee is grown. These effects are expected to continue for the third year in a row. Against this backdrop, crop failures have been recorded in most regions. This has led to an increase in the prices of some food products. Similar three-year periods of El Nino were observed during the first world food crisis from 1973 to 1976 and then from 1998 to 2001, the authors of the study point out. Specialists admit that the negative climatic effects will continue in 2024. Currently, market participants turn to some commodities that may rise in value due to climate change and crop failures triggered by El Nino. In June, rice futures reached a 15-year peak, surpassing 2020 levels.
