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FX.co ★ Treasuries Move Modestly Lower Despite Tamer Than Expected Inflation Data

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typeContent_19130:::2024-01-26T20:07:00

Treasuries Move Modestly Lower Despite Tamer Than Expected Inflation Data

Treasuries exhibited slight decline after a period of stability during Friday's trading session.

Despite a fluctuating early trading period, bond prices eventually declined causing the yield on the ten-year note to rise 2.8 basis points to 4.160 percent. The ten-year note yield inversely relates to its price.

This decline occurred despite the Commerce Department's report indicating a steeper-than-projected deceleration in the annual core consumer price growth rate for December.

According to the Commerce Department, December's consumer prices rose 2.6% compared to the previous year. This figure aligns with November's data and economists' predictions.

In contrast, core consumer price growth, which excludes food and energy costs, slowed to 2.9% in December from 3.2% in November. Economists predicted a deceleration to 3.0%.

The Commerce Department included these annual inflation statistics, favored by the Federal Reserve, in their monthly personal income and expenditure report.

Although core inflation fell below economists' forecasts, most believe this data insufficiently persuasive to prompt a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, as previously anticipated.

Chief Technical Strategist for the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, Larry Tentarelli, suggested, "While today's inflation report allows the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, we predict the first rate cut will occur between May and June, based on robustly performing recent GDP data and employment figures."

Tentarelli further stated, "Should employment and economic data weaken and inflation continue to fall rapidly, the likelihood of a March rate cut may increase. However, this possibility is currently not our primary prediction."

Next week's US economic agenda will commence quietly, gaining momentum mid-week with the announcement of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Even though the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the current interest rates, traders will seek hints regarding forthcoming rate cuts.

Traders are also likely to monitor forthcoming monthly employment data, weekly unemployment claims, labor productivity and cost reports, and manufacturing activity closely.

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