FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Expected to Pick Up

The annual inflation rate in the United States is forecasted to have increased for the first time in four months, climbing to 2.5% in May 2025 from 2.3% in April, which had been the lowest since February 2021. This shift is primarily linked to the initial effects of President Trump's newly imposed tariffs. On a month-over-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to rise by 0.2%, consistent with April's growth. This increase is largely attributed to higher prices for items such as furniture, apparel, and auto parts as businesses begin to pass the costs associated with these tariffs onto consumers. Concurrently, the core inflation rate, which excludes the variable prices of food and energy, is expected to slightly increase to 2.9% from 2.8% in both April and March, maintaining the lowest levels since 2021. The core CPI on a monthly basis is expected to increase by 0.3%, rising from 0.2% in April, marking the most significant monthly uptick in four months.