FX.co ★ US Small Business Optimism Below Forecasts

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States experienced a decline for the first time in three months, slipping to 98.8 in September 2025 from 100.8 in August, falling short of the forecasted 100.5. This figure reflects reduced optimism among small business owners, who are primarily concerned about supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Notably, 14% of owners identified inflation as their most pressing issue, while 64% reported that supply chain challenges were impacting their businesses to some extent. However, there was a positive development in actual earnings changes, which reached their highest level since December 2021. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist, commented, "Although most owners consider their businesses to be in good health, they are contending with rising inflation, tempered sales expectations, and persistent labor market challenges. Despite the high level of uncertainty, small business owners remain resilient as they strive to comprehend the potential effects of policy changes on their operations."