FX.co ★ Wheat Futures Rally on US-China Trade Optimism

Wheat futures experienced a surge of over 2%, exceeding $5.20 per bushel, marking the highest price since late September. This increase is driven by renewed optimism surrounding the US-China trade discussions. Investor attention is now directed towards the anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on Thursday, with hopes of finalizing the framework of a preliminary agreement talked about over the weekend. Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US administration expects China to resume significant purchases of US soybeans over the coming years. Additionally, China plans to defer the expansion of its rare-earth licensing regime by a year, following intensive trade negotiations in Malaysia. However, despite this market rally, wheat price advances are somewhat restrained by an abundant global supply. Russian consultancy firm SovEcon has increased its wheat production forecast for Russia—among the world's leading exporters—to 87.8 million metric tons by 2025, attributed to record yields in Siberia. Concurrently, Argentina is expected to maintain its record output with a projected production of 23 million tonnes, consistent with its 2021-2022 peak levels.