FX.co ★ Aluminum Rallies Further to 3-Year High

Aluminum futures in the UK have surged beyond $3,050 per tonne, marking the highest level in over three years, amid increasing indications of a supply shortage for manufacturers. China's status as the leading aluminum producer is pivotal, and the country has reaffirmed its commitment to avoiding overproduction in metal manufacturing to mitigate deflationary effects on manufacturers. This year, China is anticipated to exceed its output cap of 45 million tons, leading smelters to halt output increases by 2026. This situation has prompted companies to prioritize domestic sales of their restricted supply instead of exporting, resulting in a 9.2% year-over-year decrease in exports in November. Concurrently, efforts by Chinese smelters to establish new plants in Indonesia are facing challenges due to rising energy costs and local regulatory issues. Additionally, high energy prices, equipment malfunctions, difficulties in procuring bauxite, and geopolitical considerations have led to the suspension of significant smelters in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia.