UK natural gas futures have climbed above 155 pence per therm, their highest level since January 2023, as ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to roil global energy markets. The spike came on the heels of Brent crude oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel and the effective shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy exports.
Europe’s gas market is particularly exposed. Storage sites were heavily depleted over the winter, leaving countries under pressure to secure substantial volumes of LNG to rebuild inventories before next heating season. This is likely to fuel intense competition with Asian buyers for a limited pool of spot cargoes.
The UK appears especially vulnerable because of its relatively limited gas storage capacity and heavy dependence on imports. Supply risks have been exacerbated by the shutdown of QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar, one of the world’s largest export hubs. Analysts caution that if the outage persists for several weeks, the global gas balance could swing from an anticipated surplus to a supply deficit.
