Urea futures climbed to as high as $684 per tonne, the highest level since October 2022 and more than 70% above the start of the year, as the war in the Middle East severely disrupts global fertilizer markets. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in natural gas prices—an essential input for urea production—and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments.
Additional pressure comes from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, which together account for about a quarter of global urea exports, deepening concerns over supply security. Production in India and Bangladesh has also been curtailed by plant shutdowns and maintenance work amid tight LNG availability.
At the same time, China has tightened export restrictions to safeguard domestic supplies, while Russia has reduced exports of key nutrient products. On the demand side, consumption is surging ahead of the spring planting season, particularly in major agricultural economies, prompting countries to compete more aggressively for imports and driving prices even higher.
