Thailand’s industrial production fell 0.04% year-on-year in February 2026, reversing an upwardly revised 1.64% increase in January and missing market expectations for a 2.3% rise. This was the first annual contraction since November 2025 and was largely attributed to a decline in petroleum output following temporary maintenance shutdowns at several refineries. Car production also weakened, according to Supakit Boonsiri, head of the Ministry of Industry’s Office of Industrial Economics.
Mr. Supakit expects industrial output to edge higher in March, supported by increased production of air conditioners, food, and beverages during the summer season. Even so, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are heightening uncertainty and putting upward pressure on logistics and energy costs, with the impact likely to become more evident in the coming months. To cushion the effect of rising oil prices, the government is preparing an oil tax reduction. Mr. Supakit added that the ministry will reassess its 2026 industrial output forecast in May; for now, it continues to project growth in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
