Nickel futures are trading above $18,750, hovering just below the more than three‑month high of $18,775 as the market consolidates after a strong rally. The upward trend is being driven by expectations of a tighter global balance, following the International Nickel Study Group’s forecast that the market will move into a small deficit in 2026, reversing this year’s surplus. This outlook reflects demand growth outpacing supply and underpins a firmer medium‑term price environment.
On the supply side, Indonesia remains a key driver of cost dynamics after revising its benchmark pricing framework for nickel ore. The changes, which broaden the range of inputs and raise base price assumptions, have effectively lifted upstream cost floors, reinforcing higher production costs and a steeper global cost curve. At the same time, Indonesia’s HPAL segment continues to face pressure, as elevated input costs limit processing flexibility for nickel intermediates used in battery materials, constraining near‑term supply.
