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FX.co ★ German Industrial Output Growth Accelerates; Exports Fall

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typeContent_19130:::2024-04-08T14:17:00

German Industrial Output Growth Accelerates; Exports Fall

Official data revealed on Monday that the growth of Germany's industrial production accelerated more than expected in February, although there was a decline in exports as imports rose, causing the trade surplus to fall below expectations.

Industrial output saw a monthly growth of 2.1 percent, surpassing the economists’ forecast of a 0.3 percent expansion. This marked the second month of increase, following a revised 1.3 percent rise in January. However, the annual industrial production dropped by 4.9 percent after falling by 5.3 percent a month earlier.

February's monthly growth was fuelled by the 7.9 percent expansion in construction output, whereas energy output declined by 6.5 percent. Discounting energy and construction, industrial production increased by 1.9 percent. This improvement was largely attributed to the rise in production in the automobile and chemical industries.

Within the industry sector, the production of intermediate goods and capital goods increased 2.5 percent and 1.5 percent respectively. The output of consumer goods also rose by 1.9 percent. Capital Economics economist, Franziska Palmas, stated that this significant monthly output increase indicates a promising start to the year for the sector. However, she expects challenges in the coming months due to weak demand and reduced competitiveness.

Data also revealed that exports dropped by 2.0 percent month-on-month in February, a much sharper fall than the expected 0.5 percent, after recovering in January by 6.3 percent. Conversely, imports saw an unexpected 3.2 percent growth, confounding the forecast for a 1.0 percent fall.

Consequently, the trade surplus decreased to a seasonally adjusted level of EUR 21.4 billion from EUR 27.6 billion in January, falling short of economists' forecast of EUR 25.5 billion. Year on year, exports fell by 1.2 percent, reversing a 1.6 percent rise. Meanwhile, the annual fall in imports slowed to 6.7 percent from 7.5 percent.

ING economist, Carsten Brzeski, believes there are reasons for moderate optimism that the cyclical downturn has ended. He noted that although private consumption has dragged on the economy in the first months of the year, the recent data offers hope that economic stagnation could have already ceased in the first quarter.

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