FX.co ★ Palm Oil Retreats After 2-Day Rise

Malaysian palm oil futures have dipped below MYR 4,150 per tonne, reversing the upward trend observed over the previous two sessions. This decline is attributed to a strengthening ringgit and a downturn in Dalian palm olein prices. Additionally, weather-related concerns have reemerged, with the northeast monsoon anticipated to commence later this week and extend through March 2026, posing potential challenges to harvesting activities. According to data released by the industry regulator, end-of-October inventory levels have reached their highest point in six and a half years, while production has surged by 11.02% to reach its peak since August 2015. On the export side, cargo surveyors have reported a 9.5% to 12.3% decline in shipments during the period from November 1 to 10, driven by diminished overseas demand. Nevertheless, the losses were mitigated by projections from a research firm suggesting that palm oil prices will range between MYR 4,300 and MYR 4,600 in the first half of 2026, buoyed by delayed peak production and stable consumption in major markets. On a global scale, there is optimism that the record U.S. government shutdown may conclude shortly, as the House is anticipated to approve the resolution later this week, thereby enhancing global risk sentiment.