FX.co ★ UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Edges Up from 11-Month Low

The yield on the UK's 10-year gilt edged up to 4.43% following an 8 basis-point dip that took it below 4.4% in the previous session, marking its lowest point since December 2024. Attention has now shifted towards indications of economic frailty as the Autumn Budget looms. Recent labor market data has intensified speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England next month, with the odds of such a move currently estimated at about 80%. In the third quarter, regular pay growth eased to 4.6%, the lowest since early 2022, while total pay, which includes bonuses, increased by 4.8%, marginally under the projections. The unemployment rate has risen to 5%, the highest in four years, as the number of unemployed grew and employment levels saw their first fall since early 2024. Although the Bank of England maintained steady rates last week, it hinted at a possible rate cut in December, contingent on a reduction in domestic inflation pressures. Investors are keenly awaiting the third-quarter GDP figures due on Thursday for further insight into the economic landscape, ahead of the government's budget announcement later this month.