FX.co ★ Arabica Coffee Futures Slip

Arabica coffee futures experienced a decline of over 3.5%, settling just below $4.10 per pound. This drop was influenced by profit-taking following a recent surge, as well as indications from President Trump about potential reductions in US tariffs on coffee imports. Additionally, the market is anticipating a decision from the US Supreme Court regarding Trump's application of emergency powers to implement extensive tariffs on key trading partners. Despite these developments, market fundamentals remain robust, bolstered by low inventories and uncertainties related to weather in major coffee-producing countries. Certified Arabica stocks have been on a downward trend since August across most origins, including Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru, and Uganda. As of November 11, inventories monitored by ICE have decreased to a 1.75-year low of 406,129 bags. The weather in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has been under scrutiny recently as the 2026/27 season begins. Although recent rainfall has enhanced Brazil's 2026/27 Arabica prospects following initial dry spells and premature flowering, the final harvest size remains uncertain.