FX.co ★ Palm Oil Rises Further But Points to 3rd Straight Monthly Drop

Malaysian palm oil futures stayed above MYR 4,100 per tonne on Friday, marking a rise for the third consecutive session and reaching a one-week high. This positive trend was influenced by gains in Dalian vegetable oils and persistent supply concerns. Recent data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) indicated that output increased by 3.2% from November 1st to 20th, a much slower pace compared to the 7%–10% gain observed in October. In India, a key market, palm oil imports for 2025/26 are forecasted to rise to 9.3 million tonnes, from a five-year low of 7.58 million tonnes, potentially boosting demand. Concurrently, Indonesia, the leading global supplier, has intensified its regulatory controls on the industry amid allegations of export data manipulation aimed at evading levies. This regulatory tightening might restrict short-term shipments, offering limited support to prices. Nevertheless, the overall trend sees prices on course for a third monthly decline, down approximately 2.2%, impacted by weak export figures. According to cargo surveyors, Malaysian shipments fell by 16.4%–18.8% in the first 25 days of November. Additionally, exports to China dropped significantly, nearly 29%, during the initial 10 months of 2025, as reported by the commodities minister.