FX.co ★ Aussie Dollar Stays Near 4-Year Peak

The Australian dollar edged down to about $0.71 but stayed close to its highest level since May 2022, supported by a renewed surge in oil prices after fresh tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire in the Iran conflict came under renewed pressure when the United States seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, prompting Tehran’s top military leadership to threaten retaliation and reassert its claim over control of the Strait. Even so, Trump signaled that there was still room for a deal ahead of another round of talks in Pakistan, although Iranian officials saw little chance of an agreement. The protracted conflict has unleashed a historic energy supply shock, heightening inflation risks and strengthening expectations of further interest rate hikes by major central banks. In Australia, a robust labor market has already bolstered the case for additional tightening, with markets assigning a 75% probability that the Reserve Bank will raise rates next month. Investors are now awaiting this week’s flash PMI readings for further insight into the economy’s underlying momentum.