US sugar futures declined to about 14.6 US cents per pound, their lowest level since late April, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising supplies from leading producer Brazil. Continued sugarcane crushing in Brazil’s Center-South region is further increasing physical availability and weighing on prices.
At the same time, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its forecast for the 2025/26 global surplus, now projecting record output of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season. The surplus is expected to reach 2.2 million tons, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.22 million tons, marking a sharp turnaround from the 3.46 million-ton deficit anticipated for 2024/25.
The outlook for 2026/27 is more constrained. Global production is forecast to edge down 1.15% to 180 million tons, with a potential deficit of 262,000 tons, partly reflecting possible El Niño–related disruptions in key producers India and Thailand. By contrast, brokerage firm Czarnikow projects a modest surplus of 1.4 million tons for that season, citing stronger output in China.
